What dry January behaviours can teach us about the Future of Alcohol

For the last few years, the drinks industry has been haunted by a familiar phrase: “People are drinking less.” It’s usually delivered with the energy of a funeral,  half-lament, half-threat, always with the implication that the good times might be over for good.

But the reality, like most cultural shifts, is a lot more nuanced,  and a lot more interesting.

Dry January, once a niche wellness challenge, has become a mass behavioural reset. In the UK, around 15.5 million adults planned to take part in 2025 (Alcohol Change UK),  nearly one in three. In the US, 30% of adults participated (Circana data). And while some sign up through official campaigns, millions more join informally,  skipping drinks, cutting back, recalibrating. Whatever their reasons, the effect is the same: Dry January is now one of the most widespread cultural experiments in modern drinking.

At Impero, we wanted to go deeper. We conducted first-hand qualitative research with 100 UK-based consumers participating in Dry January, to understand not just what they were doing, but why,  and what it could tell us about the future of the alcohol category.

What we found wasn’t abstinence.
It was optimisation.

The End of Autopilot

The people cutting back on alcohol aren’t turning into puritans. They’re not joining temperance movements or judging their still-sipping mates. What they are doing is reassessing,  asking, often for the first time: Is this drink actually worth it?

It’s a question driven by pragmatism, not panic. In our research, 31% of participants said they were cutting back to build better long-term habits, while 28% were seeking a greater sense of control. Others cited tangible benefits: 13% wanted more energy, 12% were trying to save money, and 11% were prioritising mental clarity.

In other words, this isn’t a moral crusade. It’s behavioural economics. In a world where people are tracking their sleep, counting their steps and keeping an eye on their cortisol levels, alcohol is no longer a given, it’s one more lifestyle choice under audit. And it’s having to earn its place.

Dry January as a Value Recalibration

Our research revealed a clear emotional pattern among Dry January participants: the tension between what they feared they’d lose and what they were unexpectedly glad to gain. Many assumed that going alcohol-free would cost them social ease, a sense of ritual, or access to fun and belonging. But instead, they reported a surprising range of benefits,  from better sleep and higher energy to reduced anxiety, more time and money, and a renewed sense of control over their lives. These weren’t superficial wins; they were deeply felt. And once experienced, they reshaped people’s relationship with drinking. As one participant put it, “I won’t stop drinking altogether, but I’ll definitely think harder before I say yes to the next round.”

The Future of Alcohol Is Selective

This is the paradox Dry January exposes: people aren’t giving up alcohol,  they’re being more deliberate about when and why they drink. Even though the total alcohol category in the UK is expected to shrink by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% in volume and value over the next five years (IWSR), The total NoLo market more than doubled in 2024 compared to 2023, and is expected to see volume growth of around 7% annually from 2024-2028.

Which means, where volume once reigned, we’re now entering an era of:

• Justified occasions over habitual ones

• Conscious choices over automatic pours

• Meaningful drinks over more drinks

This is the end of autopilot, and the brands that succeed will be those that earn each moment of consumption, not assume it.

What People Want From Alcohol Brands Now

When we asked people what they want from alcohol brands,  particularly during periods when they’re drinking less, the responses pointed to a clear redefinition of value. 35% said they want brands to actively support their mental wellbeing, signalling a shift from indulgence to emotional utility. 27% are looking for more meaningful low- and no-alcohol rituals, moments that still feel special, not like second-best. 16% want help feeling confident and relaxed without alcohol, while 12% are craving more engaging, alcohol-free ways to spend time. And 10% just want socialising to feel less awkward when they’re not drinking.

This isn’t drink-as-product anymore,  it’s drink-as-life-partner. People are asking alcohol brands to contribute to their wellbeing, their confidence, even their social lives. It’s no longer enough to deliver celebration. Brands need to show up with relevance, support and creativity, baked into every interaction.

Reframing Growth

So, where does growth come from in this new landscape? It’s not about forcing the old model to work harder. It’s about building new models entirely.

Here’s where we see the most meaningful opportunities:

1. Help People Win the Morning
   Create drinks, rituals and formats that protect sleep, boost energy, and don’t wreck tomorrow. Think nightcaps that calm, not clobber,  or celebratory moments that don’t cost you the next day.

2. Make Socialising Less About the Drink
   Build inclusive experiences where not drinking doesn’t mean missing out. From pop-ups to playlists, help people feel part of something.

3. Invent New Rituals, Don’t Just Take Old Ones Away
   People still want that “I’ve earned this” moment,  just without the baggage. Create fresh ways to unwind, reward or reset, whether it’s Friday at five or Tuesday after bedtime.

4. Make Saying No Feel Like Power, Not Penalty
   Rebrand moderation as modern confidence. Show that choosing less can still feel like more, more clarity, more control, more you.

5. Put No/Low at the Centre, Not the Sidelines
   No and low-alcohol options aren’t the compromise anymore,  they’re the default for a new generation. Treat them like the main event, not the backup plan.

A Prototype for the Future

The big shift isn’t away from alcohol, it’s away from unconscious alcohol.

Dry January isn’t the death of the drinks industry. It’s a prototype for where it can go next: more selective, more conscious, more culturally fluent.

The brands that win won’t be the loudest. They’ll be the ones that understand the value exchange has changed,  and respond not with panic, but with creativity, clarity, and confidence.

This isn’t decline.
It’s design.